Urbanization and Land-Cover Change

Understanding urban growth patterns and their relationship with the FWE Nexus

Raphael Karutz

The two case study cities in our project, Amman (Jordan) and Pune (India) have experienced rapid growth in the last decades. This growth can be observed both in terms of population and spatial extension of the cites. The population growth is largely associated with in-migration. While for Amman, refugees from neighboring states (Palestine, Iraq, Syria) have dominated the new arrivals, Pune receives mainly domestic migrants from rural parts of the state. We investigate, to which extent the development of the cities, particularly their spatial expansion, is linked to the three nexus dimensions food/agriculture, water, and energy. Developing an extended SLEUTH urban growth model, we assess how the three nexus dimensions influence the growth of the city both in terms of sprawl in the periphery –conversion of agricultural land to urban built-up area – and as factors for densification of the urban core. For the latter, we focus on informal settlements since they react more sensitively to the availability of nexus (especially water) infrastructure. But the two cities are not only affected by the nexus resources, their rapid growth also exerts pressure on availability and infrastructure of all three of them. This will be analyzed in a second step.

Our simulation of the urban development is based on extensive literature reviews and field work, including the project-wide Sustainability Living Labs (SLLs), that included urban planners and various stakeholders from both cities. Qualitative field work in Pune’s slums in early 2020 will provide a deeper understanding of decision factors related to the people’s choice of residence.