A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

"Jordan is facing an unfolding water crisis, exacerbated by climate change and conflict-induced refugee influxes. We present a freshwater security analysis for the country, enabled by an integrated systems model that combines simulation of Jordan’s natural and built water environment with thousands of representative human agents determining water allocation and use decisions. Our analysis points to severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in Jordan’s freshwater security. Without intervening measures, over 90% of Jordan’s low-income population will be experiencing critical water insecurity by the end of the century. To gain a foothold on its water future, Jordan must enact an ambitious portfolio of interventions that span supply- and demand-side measures, including large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water-sector reform."

PNAS April 6, 2021 118 (14) e2020431118; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2020431118

Jim Yoon,  View ORCID ProfileChristian Klassert, Philip Selby, Thibaut Lachaut, Stephen Knox,  View ORCID ProfileNicolas Avisse, Julien Harou,  View ORCID ProfileAmaury Tilmant,  View ORCID ProfileBernd Klauer,  View ORCID ProfileDaanish Mustafa, Katja Sigel,  View ORCID ProfileSamer Talozi, Erik Gawel,  View ORCID ProfileJosue Medellín-Azuara,  View ORCID ProfileBushra Bataineh,  View ORCID ProfileHua Zhang, and Steven M. Gorelick (View Orchid Profile)