Energy Security
The FUSE consortium is addressing energy security by integrating state-of-the-art electricity demand estimations with a scenario-based supply system modeling approach. A particular focus is placed on interactions between electricity supply and other nexus dimensions.
Energy Security and the Nexus in Our Case Studies
The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has historically been dependent on fossil fuel imports, which it received at favorable rates from neighboring countries. Conflict and instability in the region have, however, frequently been a source of uncertainty and resulted in varying dependencies on neighbor states (e.g. Egypt, Iraq, Gulf countries). While the potential for renewables - particularly photovoltaic power generation - is high in Jordan, , these currently constitute merely about 10% of installed capacity. Three factors contribute to the slow expansion of Jordan’s domestic RE capacities: sluggish growth in (industrial) demand, existing long-term contracts for fossil fuels, and a surplus of electricity generation in the last years. Substantial linkages between the energy sector and the other dimensions of the FWE nexus exist, the strongest arguably with water supply: freshwater is pumped across vast distances and altitude levels, for instance in the Disi Water Conveyance Project. About 15% of all energy consumption in Jordan is accounted for by the water sector.
Pune is located in the state of Maharashtra, India, which has a history of short-term energy insecurity shaped by excess demands and scheduled blackouts. Today, the state is producing a surplus of electricity. Power consumers have continuous supply - with the exception of the agricultural sector, which consumes about a third of the overall produced power at highly subsidized rates. Cross-subsidizing electricity consumers, mainly industries and the commercial sector, increasingly use alternative channels such as open markets or captive power to meet their power needs. This, in combination with the subsidies for agricultural consumption, is a financial burden for the state electricity distribution company. Energy security in Maharashtra is highly intertwined with agriculture and water supply. On the one hand, there is substantial hydro-electric power generation with the highest density of dams in all of India’s states. On the other hand, electricity-powered groundwater pumping is a key element of irrigated agriculture.
The FUSE Approach
The FUSE energy team approaches electricity demand of different sectors in urban areas through estimations based on (i) unit-level survey data from ministries of statistics of both study regions and (ii) large-scale surveys. For each case-study, electricity demand functions for different consumer groups will be estimated by applying econometric methods. The coefficients of the demand functions will be used as inputs to the FUSE model, with the help of which the total urban electricity demand can be simulated under different narratives.
The supply side of electricity markets in both case studies is simulated by adopting a scenario approach. In a first literature study, the respective electricity sectors and their characteristics are assessed. Based on this, plausible economic and technological pathways for future developments up to the year 2050 will be developed and quantified in terms of expansion of generation capacities and associated cost. Relevant interlinkages with the water-related and agricultural modules of the FUSE model will be implemented to analyze nexus specific challenges and opportunities in the future.